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学术科研
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Analysts' initial coverage and stock price crashes
Initial analyst coverage significantly affects capital markets. This study used a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2020 to examine the impact of analysts' initial coverage on stock price crash risk. Analysts' initial coverage can reduce the risk of stock price crashes significantly. We removed "bear and bull market samples" using the two-stage least squares method and changed the indicators to measure stock price crashes, and the conclusions remained unchanged. Mechanism analysis showed that analysts' initial coverage can reduce stock price crash risk primarily due to the intermediary and supervisory effect mechanisms. The pressure effect and cater effect mechanisms were not significant. Compared with star analysts, the initial coverage of nonstar analysts was more significant in reducing stock price crash risk. When an analyst assesses a nonstar company, it can reduce the risk of a stock price crash. Analysts' initial coverage can reduce the risk of stock price crashes in the bear market. The relationship between analyst coverage and stock price crash risk was more pronounced in heavily polluting firms. The findings provide important insights for listed companies on reducing stock price crash risk.
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Last digit tendency: Lucky numbers and psychological rounding in mobile transactions
The distribution of digits in numbers obtained from different sources reveals interesting patterns. The well-known Benford's law states that the first digits in many real-life numerical data sets have an asymmetric, logarithmic distribution in which small digits are more common; this asymmetry diminishes for subsequent digits, and the last digit tends to be uniformly distributed. In this paper, we investigate the digit distribution of numbers in a large mobile transaction data set with 835 million mobile transactions and payments made by approximately 460,000 users in more than 300 cities. Although the first digits of the numbers in these mobile transactions follow Benford's law, the last digit has a strong tendency to be a lucky number or be influenced by psychological rounding. This lucky number tendency is more significant in transactions that are more strongly connected to social interactions, such as money sent as gifts or as "red envelopes " (a traditional method of gift-giving during Chinese holidays), and in transactions by individuals with potentially greater emotional needs, such as during COVID-19 outbreaks and natural disasters. This psychological rounding tendency is more common in online ecommerce payments, in-store purchases, and money transfers between individuals. These findings are key for understanding the last digit tendency and its psychological and emotional mechanisms, which could be used as an indicator of public sentiment or in methods of detecting fraudulent business activity.
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Structural changes in China's flow of funds (1992-2022): A Who-to-Whom model
We aimed to compile the flow of funds and stock matrix based on the Who-to-Whom (W-t-W) model. Our objective was to analyze structural changes in China's flow of funds and macroeconomic regulation. To strengthen macroeconomic monitoring, we examined the characteristics of fund sources and uses across sectors from a sectoral perspective of the flow of funds. Utilizing data on fund flows and stocks, we constructed the Chinese flow-of-funds matrix and financial asset-liability matrix for the period 1998-2022. Furthermore, time series methods were introduced to track the flow of funds and conduct influence and sensitivity analysis of assets and liabilities. We also performed a multiplier analysis of the fluctuations in the flow of funds and discuss the position and role of the Financial Corporation and Government sector in the financial market.