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学术科研
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Forecasting China's Short-Term Energy Futures Price Using a Novel Secondary Decomposition-Optimized System
Energy futures price forecasting is challenging due to the nonlinear and fluctuant characteristics. Existing literature mainly uses decomposition and ensemble method which neglects the intrinsic mode function obtained by the first decomposition could be irregular and thus reduces the prediction accuracy. To fill the research gap, a novel secondary decomposition-optimized-KELM-ensemble forecasting system is proposed to perform short-term forecasting in this study, which synthesizes two-stage data decomposition method, Sparrow search optimization algorithm, and extreme learning machine with kernel. We test the method with two energy futures prices in China, demonstrating that both one-day and three-day ahead forecasting results obtained are more accurate and stable compared to existing models in the literature, such as BPNN (improved by 58.42% on one-day ahead and 56.44% on three-day ahead by MAE) and KELM (improved by 56.40% on one-day ahead and 49.04% on three-day ahead by MAE). Therefore, the forecasting system introduced in this paper can provide useful implications for both policy makers and financial practitioners in the energy sector.
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Foreignness as a double-edged sword for internationalizing cultural goods: deep learning-based semiotic analysis of Hollywood movies in China
Globalization of cultural goods has grown substantively over the past decade. Rooted in the home-country social context, cultural goods are inherently "foreign" when traded in a host country. However, how foreignness is manifested in cultural goods, and how the associated liability and asset of foreignness jointly affect their host-country market performance remain unclear. We address these questions by examining 304 Hollywood movies in China from 2011 to 2018, focusing on semiotic foreignness - the differences in movie synopses and posters between Hollywood and Chinese movies. We utilize Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) to analyze synopses and Structural Similarity Index Measure (SSIM) for posters, which allow us to understand how audiences interpret and perceive foreignness in texts and images. The results show an inverted U-shaped relationship between poster foreignness and Hollywood movie box office sales in China, indicating that moderate poster foreignness drives optimal sales. In comparison, box office performance is insensitive to synopsis foreignness. Our study provides valuable insights into the divided views of foreignness and its role in host-country performance. It also addresses the criticism of the poorly specified and operationalized foreignness construct and makes a first attempt to bridge the literature of international business and optimal distinctiveness.
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制度压力下资源型企业低碳转型的组织行为选择——基于合法性与效率的视角
碳中和背景下的资源型企业低碳转型存在投入高、周期长、见效慢等问题，转型行为亟待研究。不同制度压力可能对组织低碳转型产生拉动力或推动力，由此引发企业选择主动或被动的应对行为。以资源型企业陕西钢铁集团形成低碳转型理念的过程为例，不仅识别出资源型企业在不同制度压力下的低碳转型行为，并基于合法性与效率视角探究这些制度压力驱动资源型企业采取对应转型行为的路径。结果表明：第一，资源型企业在低碳领域面临管制、规范和认知3种制度压力，3种制度压力分别驱动企业采取节能降耗、研发创新和制度机制调整3种低碳转型行为。第二，制度压力下企业的转型动因是企业在经济效率与环保合法性之间寻求平衡。研究丰富了制度理论和企业可持续行为领域文献，同时为更好驱动资源型企业低碳转型实践提供理论支持。碳中和背景下的资源型企业低碳转型存在投入高、周期长、见效慢等问题，转型行为亟待研究。不同制度压力可能对组织低碳转型产生拉动力或推动力，由此引发企业选择主动或被动的应对行为。以资源型企业陕西钢铁集团形成低碳转型理念的过程为例，不仅识别出资源型企业在不同制度压力下的低碳转型行为，并基于合法性与效率视角探究这些制度压力驱动资源型企业采取对应转型行为的路径。结果表明：第一，资源型企业在低碳领域面临管制、规范和认知3种制度压力，3种制度压力分别驱动企业采取节能降耗、研发创新和制度机制调整3种低碳转型行为。第二，制度压力下企业的转型动因是企业在经济效率与环保合法性之间寻求平衡。研究丰富了制度理论和企业可持续行为领域文献，同时为更好驱动资源型企业低碳转型实践提供理论支持。
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Disagreement and returns: The case of cryptocurrencies
We present the first evidence of investor-trading-based disagreement's influence on cross-sectional cryptocurrency daily returns. We interpret abnormal trading volume as investor disagreement and find evidence in support of Miller's disagreement model: when short-sale constraints are binding, high abnormal volume (high disagreement) assets experience lower future returns. Further supporting Miller, these same conditions associate with higher contemporaneous order imbalance, and ex post decreases in both buying and selling activities, with the former exceeding the latter in magnitude. By contrast, the effect of high disagreement disappears after a coin's margin trading is activated. We conclude that price-optimism models explain the disagreement-returns relationship when opinion divergence is likely the dominant determinant of returns.